Establishing a Risk-Informed Validation Research Hub
Tatsuya Sakurahara, Zahra Mohaghegh, Ernest Kee, Seyed Reihani, and Pegah Farshadmanesh (Nuclear, Plasma, & Radiological Engrineering)
Farzaneh Masoud, Terry Von Thaden, and Richard Kesler (Fire Service Institute)
Tonghun Lee (Mechanical Science & Engineering)
Hadi Meidani (Civil & Environmental Engineering)
Research Problem
As more industries are transitioning from the deterministic and performance-based approach to the risk-informed approach to ensuring safety while saving cost, the need for socio-technical risk analysis has been on the rise. Although universities and national laboratories have developed advanced engineering models for evaluating the uncertainty in outcomes, the use of these models by industry or the regulatory agency in risk analysis has been limited due to two unique validation challenges. First, the simulation models in risk analysis require the coupling of physics, human, and organizational mechanisms; thus, the validation experiments should be designed with explicit considerations of social factors and their interactions with physical phenomena. Currently, no research laboratory in the world validates technological systems’ risk models considering the interactions of physical systems with human and organizational factors. Second, the metrics and criteria for validity evaluation should be linked to the contexts and requirements of risk-informed decision-making instead of relying on the model prediction error at the level of simulation outputs. Currently, validating the simulation models and considering the simulation model validity in risk-informed decision-making do not have clear theoretical and methodological linkages as these two topics have been developed and applied by different research communities.
Vision
Initiate the first-of-its-kind Fire Risk Lab that covers the full spectrum of fire risk analysis, including advanced physics-human-organizational modeling and simulation, experimental facility, validation, and risk assessment. The lab will generate experimental data to validate fire physics-human coupled models and connect experimental analysis to system-level risk analysis models in a unified framework. The initial target of the Fire Risk Lab will be Fire PRA validation for the nuclear industry.
Larger Impact
Establish UIUC as the premier institution for validation research. The theoretical and methodological developments at this research hub can provide scientific solutions to validation challenges faced by advanced modeling and simulation that can delay or prevent applications of state-of-the-art modeling and simulation in various domains and applications. The Fire Risk Lab will enhance the existing research infrastructures and activities on campus and provide more opportunities to compete for federal grants from various agencies, creating the potential for establishing a large-scale research hub at UIUC.