News-Gazette (Nov. 1) -- With just one week to go, Election Analytics gives Hillary Clinton a significant, albeit shrinking, lead over Donald Trump in the Electoral College — 321 votes to 217. At this point, no credible website or forecasters give Trump a realistic chance of winning the election.
Related story: Chicago Inno (Nov. 2) -- You've likely seen hundreds of polls over the course of the election, but none like this one. UIUC computer scientists are working on Election Analytics, a real-time, data-driven analysis of the likely outcome of the election ahead. It uses the same available polling data that sites such as Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight use, but also looks at age and size of the poll, then breaks it down state-by-state. Then, it uses an algorithm that takes into account past elections to come up with their prediction. The professor behind Election Analytics, Sheldon Jacobson, said they've been 12 percent more accurate than Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. As of Wednesday, they predict Hillary Clinton has a 99.96 percent chance of winning the election. Also: The Ledger (Nov. 4).
Related story: One News (Nov. 7) -- Election Analytics founder Sheldon Jacobson from the University of Illinois' computer science department stops by the studio to discuss the latest election polls and how accurate their predictions are at the University. Also: WCIA-TV (Nov. 8). Also: FoxIllinois News (Nov. 9).
Related story: News-Gazette (Nov. 9) -- CS professor Shelden Jacobson’s phone pinged constantly Wednesday morning, with reporters and anxious voters all asking the same question: How did the polls get it so wrong? The University of Illinois computer science professor, who runs an Election Analytics website with his students, didn’t blame the state polling data that they use for their analysis, which gave Hillary Clinton a 99 percent chance of winning. Rather, he said, it was a “once in a lifetime” upset that defied the odds, based on a near-total swing in undecided voters to Donald Trump. That scenario was one of 21 laid out on the website, and it gave Trump a 77 percent chance of winning. Also: Chicago Inno (Nov. 9), Defense One (Nov. 9).